Prediction markets are back in the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

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Prediction markets let people wager on just about anything — from basketball games to elections. And among more jarring bets recently, the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran. Shortly ahead of a fragile ceasefire agreement earlier this week, a new group of accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed trades betting there’d be an announcement about a halt in fighting for April 7. Some quickly pocketed awards, which amounted to hundreds of thousands