Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

$0 流动性31 市场来源
每日打击加沙地缘政治真主党以色列以色列 × 伊朗黎巴嫩中东政治世界
$386.33K 总成交额Mar 31, 2026 UTC

市场

Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 15, 2026?
3月15日
 
100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 16, 2026?
3月16日
 
100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 17, 2026?
3月17日
 
100%

规则

原文 · 翻译中…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanese ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Lebanese territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

创建于 Feb 25, 2026 UTC