Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on...?

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on...?

$0 流动性29 市场来源
地缘政治伊朗以色列以色列 × 伊朗黎巴嫩中东
$113.03K 总成交额

市场

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 10, 2026?
3月10日
 
100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 13, 2026?
3月13日
 
100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 15, 2026?
3月15日
 
100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 16, 2026?
3月16日
 
100%
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 17, 2026?
3月17日
 
100%

规则

原文 · 翻译中…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

创建于 Mar 02, 2026 UTC