When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

When will the Danube River return to normal levels?

$31.58K 流动性5 市场来源
Climate & ScienceDroughtEuropeHungaryNatural DisastersWeather
$21.04K 总成交额Jan 02, 2027 UTC

市场

Will the Danube River return to normal levels before November 15, 2026?
Before November 15, 2026
 
100%
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between November 15 and November 30, 2026?
November 15 - 30, 2026
 
1%
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?
December 1 - 15, 2026
 
<1%
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?
December 16 - 31, 2026
 
<1%
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by January 1, 2027?
Does not return by January 1, 2027
 
<1%

规则

原文 · 翻译中…

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by January 1, 2027" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after January 1, 2027 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". All dates and times in this market refer to Eastern Time (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

创建于 Nov 02, 2026 UTC