U.S. nuclear test by...?

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$15.9K 流动性6 市场来源
地缘政治政治普京俄罗斯特朗普乌克兰
$812.77K 总成交额Jan 01, 2027 UTC

市场

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
2026年12月31日
 
5%

规则

原文 · 翻译中…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

创建于 Nov 05, 2025 UTC