Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

$0 流动性30 市场来源
GeopoliticsIranIran Offensive StrikesIsraelIsrael x IranMiddle EastOilshipshippingU.S. x Iran
$90.51K 总成交额Apr 30, 2026 UTC

市场

Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 18, 2026?
4月18日
 
100%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 20, 2026?
4月20日
 
100%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 21, 2026?
4月21日
 
100%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 23, 2026?
4月23日
 
100%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 24, 2026?
4月24日
 
100%
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 26, 2026?
4月26日
 
100%

规则

原文 · 翻译中…

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.

创建于 Mar 24, 2026 UTC