Published Sep 29, 2026, 11:00 AM ET · Updated a month ago · 1 source

Flattening 10-year minus 2-year yield curve is not a guaranteed recession indicator

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Original Report

Despite the historical association of a flattening 10-year minus 2-year yield curve with economic slowdowns and recessions, it is not a guaranteed recession indicator, as evidenced by a massive inverted yield curve in 2023-2024 that did not lead to a recession within three years.