Published Sep 15, 2026, 8:00 PM ET · Updated 2 months ago · 1 source

Fed rate hike expectation is a trap due to underlying inflation and demand destruction

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Original Report

Despite market pricing of over 85% for a Fed rate hike, this expectation is a trap because higher actual inflation (7% by some measures vs. 3.4% CPI), demand destruction, and significant private ownership of the US Treasury market complicate the Fed's ability to manipulate the market, potentially leading to a different outcome than expected.