Published Sep 5, 2026, 9:49 PM ET · Updated 2 months ago · 1 source

AI mainstream timeline based on consistent computation price performance doubling

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Original Report

The core assumption for modeling AI's mainstream timeline is the consistent doubling of computation price performance, measured as calculations per second per inflation-adjusted dollar, every two years, a trend observed by Ray Kurzweil in 1999 and consistent since the first programmable computer in 1936.