Consistently negative non-farm payrolls signal an impending economic contraction

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Historically, consistently negative non-farm payroll numbers over several months are a strong indicator of an impending economic contraction or recession, rather than one-off events. Recent non-farm payroll prints, including a negative 23,000 figure that was significantly below expectations and prior to revisions, combined with a consistent trend of negative numbers over the last year and a half and further negative projections for 2025 and 2026, suggest an extremely weak and consistently declin