Published Jul 21, 2026, 3:37 PM ET · Updated 4 months ago · 1 source
Policy-circle signals may show CLARITY Act passage odds are underestimated
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Original Report
Sean Farrell believes his conversations with policymakers show the probability of CLARITY Act passage is higher than prediction market pricing; related trading restrictions may prevent policy-circle information from entering prices, so Polymarket and Kalshi may underestimate passage odds. Tom Lee explicitly endorses this judgment.