Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

$437.11 Liq28 MarketsSource
GeopoliticsMilitary ActionsMoscowputinRussiaUkraine
$9.6K Total VolDec 01, 2026 UTC

Markets

Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 3, 2026?
November 3
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 4, 2026?
November 4
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 5, 2026?
November 5
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 6, 2026?
November 6
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 7, 2026?
November 7
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 8, 2026?
November 8
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 9, 2026?
November 9
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 10, 2026?
November 10
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 11, 2026?
November 11
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 12, 2026?
November 12
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 13, 2026?
November 13
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 14, 2026?
November 14
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 15, 2026?
November 15
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 16, 2026?
November 16
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 17, 2026?
November 17
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 18, 2026?
November 18
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 19, 2026?
November 19
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 20, 2026?
November 20
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 21, 2026?
November 21
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 22, 2026?
November 22
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 23, 2026?
November 23
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 24, 2026?
November 24
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 25, 2026?
November 25
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 26, 2026?
November 26
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 27, 2026?
November 27
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 28, 2026?
November 28
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 29, 2026?
November 29
Ended
 
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Will Ukraine target Moscow on November 30, 2026?
November 30
Ended
 
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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Moscow time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia, including reports from the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation relayed by the Mayor of Moscow on his official Telegram channel (https://t.me/mos_sobyanin), and a consensus of credible reporting.

Created Nov 02, 2026 UTC