Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$241.91K Liq1 MarketSource
ChinaGeopoliticsPoliticsWorld
$3.77M Total VolJan 01, 2028 UTC

Markets

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
 
9%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Created Mar 17, 2026 UTC