Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

$232.69K Liq6 MarketsSource
ScienceClimate & ScienceGlobal TempCultureWeatherWeather & Science
$3.91M Total VolMar 02, 2027 UTC

Markets

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
1
 
94%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
2
 
7%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
3
 
<1%
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
4
 
<1%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
5
 
<1%
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
6 or lower
 
<1%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Created Nov 12, 2025 UTC