US/Israel strikes Iran on...?

US/Israel strikes Iran on...?

$0 Liq14 MarketsSource
GeopoliticsIranIsrael x IranMiddle EastMilitary StrikesPoliticsTrumpWorld
$6.99M Total VolMar 14, 2026 UTC

Markets

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 11, 2026?
March 11
 
100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 12, 2026?
March 12
 
100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 13, 2026?
March 13
 
100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 14, 2026?
March 14
 
100%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Created Feb 28, 2026 UTC