Q: How does "Sonora Governor Election Winner" resolve?

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Question 1

What is the probability of "Sonora Governor Election Winner"?

Accepted Answer

Lorenia Valles Sampedro: 58%; Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas: 31%; Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez: 26%; Rogelio Díaz Brown: 9%; Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez: 6%; Javier Lamarque Cano: 2%; Natalia Rivera Grijalva: <1%; Damián Zepeda Vidales: <1%; Ernesto Gándara Camou: <1%; Manuel Scott Sánchez: <1%

Question 2

How does "Sonora Governor Election Winner" resolve?

Accepted Answer

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Sonora Governor Election Winner

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