Q: How does "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" resolve?

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Question 1

What is the probability of "Richest person on December 31, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Elon Musk: 98%; Bernard Arnault: 1%; Warren Buffett: <1%; Larry Ellison: <1%; Mark Zuckerberg: <1%; Jeff Bezos: <1%; Steve Ballmer: <1%; Larry Page: <1%; Jensen Huang: <1%; Sergey Brin: <1%

Question 2

How does "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

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