Q: How does "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" resolve?

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Question 1

What is the probability of "Next Prime Minister of Italy?"?

Accepted Answer

Giorgia Meloni: 53%; Giuseppe Conte: 24%; Elly Schlein: 21%; Silvia Salis: 3%; Roberto Vannacci: 3%; Matteo Renzi: 1%; Angelo Bonelli: <1%; Matteo Salvini: <1%; Carlo Calenda: <1%; Mario Draghi: <1%

Question 2

How does "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

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