Q: How does "Next Premier of New South Wales" resolve?

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New South Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Question 1

What is the probability of "Next Premier of New South Wales"?

Accepted Answer

Chris Minns: 65%; Kellie Sloane: 19%; Prue Car: 9%; Mark Speakman: 9%; Ryan Park: 8%; Rose Jackson: 7%; Gurmesh Singh: 5%; Daniel Mookhey: <1%; Mike Newman: <1%; Alister Henskens: <1%

Question 2

How does "Next Premier of New South Wales" resolve?

Accepted Answer

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New South Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Next Premier of New South Wales

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