Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?

Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?

$3.58K Liq4 MarketsSource
AIAI ReleasesMetaTechWatermelon
$106.96K Total VolNov 30, 2026 UTC

Markets

Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?
September 30
Ended
 
--
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?
October 31
Ended
 
--
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?
November 30
Ended
 
--
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?
October 15
Ended
 
--

Rules

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Created Sep 04, 2026 UTC