Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

$0 Liq11 MarketsSource
GeopoliticsIranIsraelPolitics
$5.05M Total VolMar 31, 2026 UTC

Markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by January 31, 2026?
January 31
 
100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by Februray 28, 2026?
Februray 28
 
100%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate, or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve to "Yes").Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage.Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Created Jun 24, 2025 UTC