Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$30.63K Liq10 MarketsSource
Iran CeasefireGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x IranLebanonPeace Deal
$8.7M Total VolJan 01, 2027 UTC

Markets

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
December 31
 
2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?
December 31, 2027
 
33%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?
March 31, 2027
 
9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?
June 30, 2027
 
19%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Created Apr 16, 2026 UTC