Israel military action against Beirut on...?

Israel military action against Beirut on...?

$0 Liq30 MarketsSource
BeirutGeopoliticsHezbollahIranIsraelIsrael x IranLebanonMiddle Eaststrike
$460.45K Total VolApr 30, 2026 UTC

Markets

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 11, 2026?
April 11
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 21, 2026?
April 21
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 22, 2026?
April 22
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 23, 2026?
April 23
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 24, 2026?
April 24
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 25, 2026?
April 25
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 26, 2026?
April 26
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 27, 2026?
April 27
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 28, 2026?
April 28
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 29, 2026?
April 29
 
100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 30, 2026?
April 30
 
100%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Created Mar 24, 2026 UTC