Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

$446.76K Liq14 MarketsSource
ayatollahGeopoliticsIranIran RegimeKhameneiKhamenei outMojtabaMojtaba KhameneiMojtaba outPolitics
$29.88M Total VolJul 01, 2027 UTC

Markets

Iran leadership change by December 31?
December 31
 
7%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
June 30, 2027
 
23%
Iran leadership change by November 30?
November 30
 
2%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Created Mar 09, 2026 UTC