INFERY
Field Notes / Event Research
Event Review
Public-Source Verification

CONFIRMED

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting.

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INFERY
Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Outlook After the October Decision
INFERY
Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Outlook After the October Decision
INFERY
Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Outlook After the October Decision
INFERY
Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Outlook After the October Decision

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UNCERTAIN

Will the Fed hike by exactly 25 bps, or could it be a larger move?

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Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Outlook After the October Decision

As of the last available reports on 2026-11-12, expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes weighed on markets, with CNBC warning stocks could face a "rude awakening" if the Fed hiked more than expected and Reuters reporting gold fell to an over one-week low on firm dollar and Fed rate hike bets. Those bets followed the Fed's October 28 decision to hold rates steady, after which bond traders saw a 90% chance of a December hike, and were reinforced by the October CPI report that Fed's Goolsbee called "borderline disturbing."

cnbc, reuters, apnews, bloomberg, nytimes public reporting

Price × Evidence /Market Movement
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Price & Evidence Timeline
Analysis /Event Developments
20 key developments · Tap a development to see how it affects the outlook.
Analysis /Research Analysis

A hike is likely, yet exactly a quarter point is priced too high; a half-point move is openly on the table.

The market reads near-certain hike odds as near-certain quarter-point odds, leaving the larger-move tail underpriced.

Analysis /Evidence Base
Stocks could be in for a rude awakening if the Fed hikes rates more than expectedcnbc
Fact confidence: medium
Gold falls to over one-week low on firm dollar, Fed rate hike betsreuters
Fact confidence: medium
As higher prices seep into broader economy, Fed officials consider faster hikesapnews
Fact confidence: medium
Sterling drops against firmer dollar as markets price in a hawkish Fedreuters
Fact confidence: medium
Falling US Bond Futures Offer No Relief as Fed Hike Bets Growbloomberg
Fact confidence: medium
Goldman expects additional Fed rate hike in Marchreuters
Fact confidence: medium
Gold edges higher after sharp selloff, Fed hike bets weighreuters
Fact confidence: medium
Fed’s Goolsbee Says October CPI Report ‘Borderline Disturbing’bloomberg
Fact confidence: medium
The Fed Has to Raise Rates. How Fast to Go Has Officials Divided.nytimes
Fact confidence: medium
Asian Stocks, Bonds to Drop as Fed Hike Bets Mount: Markets Wrapbloomberg
Fact confidence: medium

Analysis /

Future Paths & Actions
The call rests on the size of the hike staying uncertain; if Barr and Jefferson speak and discussion of a half-point move fades, the quarter-point bracket becomes close to certain, undermining the No case.High-risk path

TriggerThe call rests on the size of the hike staying uncertain; if Barr and Jefferson speak and discussion of a half-point move fades, the quarter-point bracket becomes close to certain, undermining the No case.

ImplicationYes: conditional, No: conditional

What it meansA hike is likely, yet exactly a quarter point is priced too high; a half-point move is openly on the table.

INFERY / RESEARCH VERDICT
Rating

Buy NO

YES overvaluedSignificant gapHigh confidence

A hike is likely, yet exactly a quarter point is priced too high; a half-point move is openly on the table.

“No”Fair price range13–32¢
  • Waller backed a December hike, warned that a quarter-point move alone would put credibility at risk, and said a half-point increase should be considered.
  • October payrolls beat forecasts, core inflation ran hot, and market-implied odds of a December hike jumped.
  • Economists including Tombs and El-Erian still expect a quarter-point move, and Barr and Jefferson are due to speak.
CURRENT MARKET

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

⚠Risk: The call rests on the size of the hike staying uncertain; if Barr and Jefferson speak and discussion of a half-point move fades, the quarter-point bracket becomes close to certain, undermining the No case.
Next watch: Remarks by Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Philip Jefferson, and whether officials keep the possibility of a larger increase in play.
View basis

Research verdict is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.