Iran says ending war with US is Washington's responsibility

President Masoud Pezeshkian continues to frame the conflict as an imposed war while maintaining a defiant stance against US pressure. Despite his rhetoric, he has signaled that Iran remains open to diplomatic engagement to resolve the hostilities. The ongoing standoff between Tehran and Washington persists as both sides remain far apart on terms for a potential peace deal.

reuters, The Hill, wsj public reporting

Price × Evidence /Market Movement

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Price & Evidence TimelineEvent markers, price moves, and evidence windows are presented in one reading surface.

Analysis /Evidence Base

Iran's president says it is up to US to choose if it wants to end Iran war

reuters

Fact confidence: medium

Iran’s President Says Open to Talks but Won’t Bow to U.S.

wsj

Fact confidence: medium

Iran president tells UN ‘we will never bow our head’ as US walks out

The Hill

Fact confidence: medium

INFERY / RESEARCH VERDICT

Rating

Watch

Fairly pricedMedium confidence

The market asks whether the UN Security Council formally adopts a resolution endorsing the final US-Iran deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum by December 31, 2026. The model puts fair Yes around 0.09 versus a market Yes near 0.145, but the 80% fair Yes range of 0.02 to 0.22 contains the market Yes price and extends well above the model point estimate, so the reference-price gap is not robust enough to justify a new position. The call is WATCH with a BUY_NO lean.

“Yes”Fair price range78–98¢

The settlement test is narrow: a UNSC resolution must formally endorse, approve, implement, give legal effect to, or incorporate the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum by December 31, 2026; Iranian openness to talks or a public demand that Washington choose whether to end the war does not itself establish that a resolution has been adopted or is scheduled.
The cited reports describe the Iranian president saying at the UN that Iran 'will never bow our head' while the US delegation walked out, and separately framing ending the war as a US choice; these reports do not themselves establish that a binding endorsement text is ready for a Council vote.
With roughly three months left in the window and a model fair Yes of 0.09 against a market Yes around 0.145, the model estimate sits below the market; but the 80% fair Yes range of 0.02 to 0.22 contains the market Yes price and extends well above the model point estimate, so the gap is not robust enough to justify a new position.

CURRENT MARKET

Will the UNSC adopt a resolution endorsing the final US-Iran deal by December 31?

Current price 14.5¢

⚠Risk: Official US or Iranian communications, or a consensus of credible reporting, identify a completed final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum, and a UNSC resolution endorsing or giving it legal effect is introduced or scheduled for a vote before the deadline — this would raise the probability of the Yes outcome, invalidating the BUY_NO lean, while the WATCH no-entry decision would also warrant reassessment.

Next watch: Watch for any UNSC action to endorse a completed final deal before the deadline, or a formal US-Iran announcement of such a deal; after the deadline passes, retire the stale pre-deadline analysis and monitor official resolution at the market end date.

View basis

Research verdict is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.